Biologists cautiously optimistic that late spring moisture will help boost mule deer numbers in north-central Montana

Three straight years of drought will do a number on mule deer. Anyone who’s driven the breaks country between Great Falls and Lewistown lately already knows things got rough — you just weren’t seeing the deer you used to. Now, after a wet May and June, FWP biologists are cautiously optimistic that north-central Montana’s mule deer herds are starting to turn a corner.

Trend area surveys conducted earlier this year showed good over-winter survival among fawns born in spring 2025. That’s a meaningful data point. Cory Loecker, FWP’s wildlife manager out of Great Falls, put it plainly: “Right now, the country is as lush and green as we have seen in a long time, which is important since the physical condition and health of the doe is the single biggest factor driving fawn production, survival and recruitment into the adult population. So, with the favorable conditions we are enjoying now, we are hopeful that our deer numbers will begin to rebound. But it took several years of poor conditions to get us to this point, so we expect it will take a few consecutive good years to see significant recovery.”

FWP biologists run aerial post-season and/or spring mule deer trend surveys across portions of 18 of the 34 deer hunting districts in Region 4. These aren’t a full headcount — they’re a snapshot of representative habitat that gives biologists a solid population estimate they can extend to the surrounding area. Good methodology, consistently applied over years, is what makes the trend data actually useful.

Hunters planning to work Region 4 this fall should know that antlerless opportunities are going to be extremely limited. Expect very few or no B licenses across most hunting districts. That’s the direct consequence of where populations have been, and honestly, it’s the right call. You don’t rebuild a herd by hammering does during a recovery.

Great Falls area

Deer numbers in the hunting districts around Great Falls have generally been running below long-term averages, particularly up in the foothills and mountain country. The agricultural ground closer to town tells a different story — numbers there are holding at or above average and have stayed relatively strong through the drought years.

Fairfield area

The southern Rocky Mountain Front took some of the hardest drought hits in the region, and low fawn production over the past several springs reflects that. The one saving grace has been mild winters. Fawn numbers were down, but the fawns that did make it had good survival rates. The population has stayed low but stable — not growing, but not cratering further either.

Lewistown area

In the Judith River and Arrow Creek breaks, mule deer numbers have been ticking up slowly for a couple of years now, though they’re still well below long-term averages. The Missouri River Breaks have seen two years of more favorable weather as well, and deer numbers there continue a slow climb. It’s progress. Just not fast progress.

White Sulphur Springs area

This is the bright spot in the region. Conditions around White Sulphur Springs have been better than most of north-central Montana, and the harvest data backs it up. Buck harvest has been strong — close to a 30-year high in recent years — with more than half the bucks taken carrying at least 4 points per side. In my experience, that kind of age and antler class data tells you the population isn’t just surviving, it’s got some quality built into it.

Stanford area

Judith Basin County has largely dodged the drought that hammered the rest of the region. Combine that with moderate to mild winters and you’ve got deer numbers sitting above long-term averages. High fawn production and recruitment are showing up as growing numbers of yearling and young adult bucks. That’s exactly the pipeline a healthy herd needs.

Conrad area

The northern Rocky Mountain Front got hit as hard as anywhere in the state. Deer numbers are well below long-term averages out there, and recovery is going to take time. Biologists are hopeful the heavy precipitation in late May and June will green things up enough to give habitat a real boost heading into the season. Move east into the more agricultural hunting districts and the picture improves — those areas are showing stable to moderately increasing populations.

-FWP-